• James J. Hargan

June Market Update

We are now fully entrenched in summer. Hope you are all able to safely and distantly enjoy the great weather!

Due to the extra time I've had as I haven't been playing hockey or been able to see anyone in person I've discovered technical analysis. Simply, there are individuals that study the charts of the markets to help determine where we may be going. It can be done for a market or an individual stock.

The method I've been following combines something called Elliott Wave Theory and the Fibonacci sequence. The EW theory believes that the market moves in waves, 5 forward and 3 back, and there are waves within those waves. R.N. Elliott developed the theory in the 1940's.

Fibonacci was a mathematician that developed the famous Fibonacci sequence, 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89 etc. etc.

When you combine the EW with the Fib's there are a group of Elliotticians that attempt to predict where we are going from here. The key point is they say the news doesn't matter! So Breaking News is irrelevant. It's the social mood that drives the markets!

Very interesting. Very time consuming. But what does all that mean for us? Back in the '40's Mr. Elliott predicted a bull market from the 1940's well into the 2000's. In fact we've already passed his bull market mark. The Elliotticians I am following believe we have a few more years of the current long-term bull market but then we could be in for a long-term bear market. I will be watching closely!

Markets were positive for June!

S&P/TSX Composite Index (CAD) CAD 2.46% FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index (CAD) CAD 1.69% S&P 500 Index (CAD) CAD 0.50% MSCI EAFE Index (CAD) CAD 1.93% MSCI Emerging Markets Index (CAD) CAD 5.83% MSCI World Index (CAD) CAD 1.19%

Lockdown 2020: Who wins? Introverts or Extroverts? I always suspected I was an introvert so why am I going crazy in lockdown??? Introvert or Extrovert?


Costly Divorces. New Billionaire Divorces


Bloomberg: Fitch Ratings removed Canada’s AAA credit rating on account of the government’s substantial Covid-19 emergency spending. These sovereign ratings downgrades never really matter much. Nonetheless, the news did get me to check the yield on Canadian 10-year debt, and it will surprise nobody to see that it’s trading near record-low levels. Fitch Ratings Canada

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