September Monthly Market Update
Updated: Apr 17
The monthly gains in September appeared to have all but disappeared today! October should certainly be fun!
FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee (aka the Fed) or the group that sets interest rates in the US. Here is a comment from John Authors of Bloomberg:
"The history of the early post-crisis years, which saw the Fed perpetually expecting to start tightening and the market perpetually betting it would not, suggests that the market will eventually be proved right. That’s an uncomfortable thought, as it almost certainly means a recession next year. If the Fed is right, assets in many markets will soon be shown to be wildly overpriced. Either way, reconciling the differences is going to be painful."
And Jefferey Gundlach of Double Line Capital, a major bond manager in the US says there is a 75% chance of a recession in 2020! He also predicted Trump would win the last election and has predicted he will win the next one. Interestingly however I'm told the sitting President rarely gets re-elected if there is a recession in an election year!
Trivia: What percentage of Americans fail to pay their credit card bills in full each month? See end of email for answer.
Everyone is wondering if a recession is coming. History tells us that 100% of the time when the yield curve inverts it leads to a recession. So yes it's coming, but nobody knows when.
Fact Two During a US election year the stock markets in the US have never been negative.
Fact Three Trump wants back in so will do what he can to keep t he economy humming until late 2020.
So what does that all mean for the markets? NOT a fact, but we could be in a for a rocky ride to the end of 2019! Time will tell.
I had to pass this on. Source is the magazine the Economist so must be true! India's parliament approved a law that would ban Muslim men from divorcing their wives simply by repeating the word talaq three times. The opposition apparently held up the change for a year!
Pass this along to your University age kids.
Trivia: What percentage of Americans fail to pay their credit card bills in full each month? 50%!! Ouch.
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