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1/17

Gold, TFSA's, Polls, Virus

The TFSA new contribution limit for 2021 has been officially released. That limit is $6,000, matching the amount set in 2019 and 2020. With this TFSA dollar limit announcement, the total contribution room available in 2021 for someone who has never contributed and has been eligible for the TFSA since its introduction in 2009 is $75,500. If you were 18 or older in 2009 $75,500 is your current limit. To be eligible for a TFSA you must be 18 years of age and can set up a plan in the year you turn 18. The annual TFSA dollar limit is indexed to inflation and rounded to the nearest $500. The Canada Revenue Agency’s indexation increase for 2021 is 1.0%.

Here are the dollar amounts by year: For 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012:$5,000

For 2013 and 2014:$5,500

For 2015:$10,000

For 2016, 2017 and 2018:$5,500

For 2019, 2020 and 2021$6,000


Federal tax bracket thresholds for 2021

  • The 33.0% tax rate begins at taxable income of over $216,511, up from $214,368 in 2020.

  • The 29.0% tax rate begins at taxable income of over $151,978, up from $150,473 in 2020.

  • The 26.0% tax rate begins at taxable income of over $98,040, up from $97,069 in 2020.

  • The 20.5% tax rate begins at taxable income of over $49,020, up from $48,535 in 2020.

  • Income below $49,020 is taxed at 15.0%.

The basic personal amount for 2021 is $13,808 for taxpayers with net income of $151,978 or less. At income levels above $151,978, the basic personal amount is gradually clawed back until it reaches $12,421 for net income of $216,511.


Global equities remain within a whisker of the all-time high set earlier this month. Still, JPMorgan Chase said rebalancing flows may lead to an exodus of around $300 billion from global shares by the end of the year.

Vaccine is here but who will take it?



SNOWBALL FIGHT VIDEO FROM 1897

Interesting take on herd immunity Fool us once … The polls were wrong again, and much of America wants to know why. Dozens of pre-election polls suggested that Joe Biden would beat President Trump by a wide margin, but the race instead came down to one or two percentage points in a handful of states. Polls also indicated that Democrats would do much better than they did in congressional races. So what happened? Here are six key points: 1. In the last few years, Republican voters seem to have become less willing to respond to polls. Maybe that shouldn’t be surprising, given Trump’s attacks on the media, science and other institutions. 2. This phenomenon isn’t simply about working-class whites. Pollsters were careful to include more of these voters in their samples than four years ago, when the polls also missed, but it didn’t solve the problem. One likely reason: Even within demographic groups — say, independent, older, middle-income white women — people who responded to polls this year leaned more Democratic than people who did not. 3. It’s also not just about Trump. Polls missed in several Senate races even more than in the presidential race, which means they did an especially poor job of finding people who voted for Biden at the top and a Republican lower down the ballot. 4. Most of the easy solutions are probably not real solutions. Since Election Day, some campaign operatives have claimed their private polls were more accurate than the public polls. That seems more false than true. Biden, Trump and both parties campaigned as if their own polls matched the public polls, focusing on some states that were not really competitive and abandoning others that were close. 5. Polls have still been more accurate over the last four years than they were for most of the 20th century. As pollsters get more information about this year’s election and what went wrong, they will try to fix the problems, much as they did in the past. A new challenge: In the smartphone age, poll response rates are far lower than they used to be. 6. We journalists can do a better job of conveying the uncertainty in polls. Polls will never be perfect. Capturing the opinions of a large, diverse country is too difficult. And in today’s closely divided U.S., small polling errors can make underdogs look like favorites and vice versa. All of us — journalists, campaign strategists and the many Americans who have become obsessed with politics — shouldn’t forget this. We just got another reminder. Gold Miners Gold and its miners have taken a beating in recent months. One of the funniest narratives I see is the idea that gold's recent decline is due to Bitcoin taking its market share. However, gold is just following real rates, as it almost always does. As Treasury bonds have sold off (i.e. their yields went up), it results in higher real rates than the bottom they reached this summer. Gold trades strongly inverse to real rates, so gold has been corrective as those real rates have risen.



SILVER CHART

"My long-term outlook continues to be bullish on gold, but I have no opinion about the next 3-6 months. It will largely depend on real rates, which itself is dependent on Treasury yields and inflation expectations. As we look out farther than that, I expect real rates to be negative for quite a while, possibly with yield curve control, and for gold to eventually have another bull run when the current real rates move finds a top." Zac Mannes, Elliott Wave Trader Zac sees a local technical bottom potentially in place around this level for the Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which if true would set up another bullish leg up:


Announced Yesterday: One time funding to help offset costs during the 2020-2021 school year. Eligible parents or guardians will receive a one time payment of: $200 for each child up to age 12 and $250 for each child or youth up to age 21 with special needs. Deadline to apply is January 15th, 2021 Click here to find out if you are eligible and how to apply. Happy holidays, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year!