September Economic Update - and Trump has Corona!
As expected we are in the midst of a small correction, small so far. I expect it to continue but as per previous commentary it should not be anywhere close to March and we should head straight back to the bull market. Time will tell but the next month should be interesting as we head for the US election and Mr Trump now has Corona.
Where are the markets today? (9/30/20)
David Fingold of Dynamic: commentary
David remains near fully invested amongst his portfolios. A few key points are highlighted below. Key Points · “The bear market is over.” Cyclical businesses are now in an up-trend, investors need to be paying attention to these changes. (Pg. 1) · Bearish factors will exist but are dominated by bullish considerations. (Pg. 2) o Growth can be achieved with no participation from interest rates or the energy market. David is zero weight both financials and energy. · “Anyone who talks about the stock market not being in-line with the economy should look at the history of where the market bottoms relative to the employment situation. I would remind everybody the employment situation is not getting worse.” (Pg. 4) · Prior leaders can become and stay laggers. David is zero weight Real Estate and Utilities. (Pg. 5) · Industrials are expressing leadership, a positive for the market. Expect to see a healthy weight to the sector throughout David’s portfolios. (Pg. 6) · “Again, I think anyone that is saying that the market is telling us something terrible is happening should look at the ratio of Cyclicals/Defensives. They are telling us that the market is bullish about the economy.” (Pg. 9) · “Starting in the second quarter of October the seasonality gets easier and the fourth quarter is frequently one of the best times of the year for the market.” (Pg. 10)
TIKTOK - Are you one of the many users that may be disappointed? (9/13/20)
President Donald Trump said there would be no extension to the Sept. 15 deadline for ByteDance Ltd. to sell the U.S. operations of its TikTok video sharing app. Authorities in China said last month that any deal for the company would have to be approved by regulators in Beijing, a move which practically guaranteed a sale could not be made on time. ByteDance, the world's most valuable startup, seems set to concentrate its future expansion plans in Asia. For Trump, it seems there is little to be gained from changing his mind on the deadline as he again makes "tough on China" a central part of his election campaign.
Market Correction (9/9/20) The selloff in U.S. tech shares picked up steam as the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 4.8% on Tuesday, leaving it around 11% off the record it hit a week ago as mega-cap names like Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Facebook Inc. all slumped. Their drops were left in the dust, however, by Tesla Corp.'s 21% plunge, which took a hefty toll on Elon Musk's wealth. Nasdaq futures have settled down going into Wednesday and investors are left nursing their wounds. That includes bond bears, those who tried to buy the dip and Japan's SoftBank Group Corp., which slid again in Tokyo after it had made big bets on derivatives in tech stocks prior to the bloodbath.
Canadian Bank ETF still looks like a great idea! And we are in the midst of another buying opportunity.
And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning (9/10/20) This morning I'm thinking about this chart of Tesla and lumber futures and how similar they look. I don't have any theory or bigger thoughts, but I'm struck by it.
Minimizing Tax in Retirement! Avoid the Clawback! https://www.manulifeim.com/retail/ca/en/viewpoints/retirement-planning/fighting-the-clawbacks-reduce-line-234?rid=61302091&jobid=5858163&ch=eml&cname=NewsletterAutomation (9/22/20) BLOOMBERG: Big U.S. cities are struggling right now, but there's a particular amount of focus on the future of New York City and whether this crisis will catalyze a longer-lasting deterioration. Here's a simple chart I put together to track NYC's economic recovery. The blue line is total MTA turnstile entries, so a decent proxy for how much people are going about their old, normal lives and confident enough to use public transport. As you can see, it's up from the depths in April, but at around 1.5 million per day, it's nowhere close to the old levels. Same goes for dining, the red line. At least per OpenTable, seated dining is still down around 80% on a year-on-year basis. And finally, the green line is shares of the big Manhattan office REIT SL Green. It's a nice way to see how investors are perceiving the health of commercial real estate in the city.
I'll keep updating this from time to time, but for now this seems like a decent way to get a snapshot of where the city's at. Note that each line is the 10-day moving average of each in order to smooth out the noise and see the trends better. Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg.
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